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I am among the ones who think that Vettel made a mistake and I rest my case. He knew that his tyres were very weak under the rain, that is because he had used them for a significant amount of laps and the thread was therefore low. A low thread means that a few drops of rain are enough to reduce the temperature of the surface of the tyre below the ideal operating range meaning that the car suddenly loses all grip. And that's what happened, when he tried to brake he lost the rear end of the car, he could either go into the barrier or spin the car (and end up into the barrier).

I also happen to believe that had Vettel pitted, or better had he called the pit to say that he was coming in for inters or ultrasofts, most of the field would have followed him with possibly the exception of Hamilton who was on a new set of tyres (so with most of the thread and no cooling issue) and especially on a softer compound that afforded him much more grip than the Ferraris. We also have to bear in mind that when Vettel crashed it looked as if the rain was there to stay, they were all waiting for someone to take the punt and change tyres. Without the SC most drivers would have had to change tyres because at that moment they had some serious issues with a very low grip level. The SC changed all that because they could wait to see what would happen with the weather, without the SC they would have had a few very challenging laps.

So someone with Vettel's experience should have known better, the same in fairness applies to the Ferrari pit wall but I don't have much faith in Ferrari's ability to manage difficult situations so IMHO Vettel should have taken the lead.

Vettel's mistake was not in misjudging the braking point, it was not realising that in those conditions and with such worn out tyres he had lost any grip and act accordingly