2012 Betting Odds

[johnnoble1990]

I'll post the changed odds on the back of that incredible first qualifying session where we, for the first time, got to see real pace. Lewis is now being backed as the favourite, though not quite as short as Seb was pre-race.

 

[Greenman]

I’ve done some work on developing the probability of the top eight drivers and now that the first qualifying is over, the latest numbers are here too.

The probability has been calculated by finding the mid point between the best price and the worse price across eighteen bookmakers. The bookmakers 5% has been factored in to create a 100% book. Using Vettel as an example the sums are as follows:

At the beginning of the week Vettel’s price ranged from 2.1 down to 1.8.

Best Price = 1 / ((1 / 2.1) / 1.05) = 2.21 = 45.4%
Worse Price = 1 / ((1 / 1.8) / 1.05) = 1.89 = 52.9%

Mid point = (45.4 + 52.9) / 2 = 49.1%

After Melbourne Qualifying around 8.30am his price ranged from 3.50 down to 3.0

Best Price = 1 / ((1 / 3.5) / 1.05) = 3.68 = 27.2%
Worse Price = 1 / ((1 / 3.0) / 1.05) = 3.15 = 31.7%

Mid point = (27.2 + 31.7) / 2 = 29.5%

So the changes have been significant with Red Bull’s average performance and the probability for the top eight drivers below reflects Monday’s price and now post qualifying.

Monday 12th March
Vettel – 49.1%
Hamilton – 15.5%
Alonso – 13.2%
Button – 12.9%
Webber – 6.5%
Raikkonen – 4.8%
Rosberg – 2.1%
Schumacher – 1.7%

8.30am Saturday 17th March
Hamilton – 33.2%
Vettel – 29.5%
Button – 21.4%
Rosberg – 6.8%
Schumacher – 6.0%
Alonso – 4.6%
Webber – 4.6%
Raikkonen – 3.2%

Of course all of these numbers will change again after the race tomorrow

 

[johnnoble1990]

Again, you've confused me by having your probabilities add up to over 100%. Why are you assuming the book is 5%? Why not workout what the book actually is, so the probabilities add to 100%?

 

[johnnoble1990]

Here are the new probabilities as I have them.

Lewis Hamilton 29.3%
Sebastian Vettel 25.7%
Jenson Button 18.1%
Nico Rosberg 5.8%
Fernando Alonso 5.6%
Michael Schumacher 4.4%
Mark Webber 4.2%
Kimi Raikkonen 2.1%
Romain Grosjean 1.3%
Felipe Massa 0.5%
Nico Hulkenberg 0.5%
Bruno Senna 0.4%
Paul di Resta 0.3%
Daniel Ricciardo 0.3%
Kamui Kobayashi 0.3%
Pastor Maldonado 0.2%
Sergio Perez Mendoza 0.1%
Jean Eric Vergne 0.1%
Heikki Kovalainen 0.1%
Vitaly Petrov 0.1%
Timo Glock 0.1%
Charles Pic 0.1%
Pedro de la Rosa 0.1%
Narain Karthikeyan 0.1%
Rubens Barrichello 0.1%
Jarno Trulli 0.1%

 

[johnnoble1990]

And here are the points predictions, according to sporting index.

Lewis Hamilton 296
Sebastian Vettel 282
Jenson Button 253
Fernando Alonso 194
Nico Rosberg 170
Mark Webber 165
Michael Schumacher 160
Kimi Raikkonen 121
Romain Grosjean 113
Felipe Massa 64.5
Nico Hulkenberg 42
Paul Di Resta 35
Sergio Perez 24.5
Kamui Kobayashi 23.5
Daniel Ricciardo 21.5
Pastor Maldonado 20.5
Jean-Eric Vergne 20.5
Bruno Senna 13.5
Vitaly Petrov 3
Heikki Kovalinen 3
Timo Glock 0.5
Narain Karthikeyan 0.5
Pedro De La Rosa 0.5
Charles Pic 0.5

 

[ATL11]

Got 8/1 on Vettel each way for a top 3 finish, not sure if the Bookies have had a mare setting those odds.....