2012 Formula One Pirelli Tyre Analysis

If the yellow isn't great, by the way, what could that mean for the red?

I think the red compound may be unchanged.

Compared to the Super Soft:

This year
Soft - 10% harder
Medium - 25% harder
Hard - 31% harder

Last year
Soft - 25% harder
Hard - 70% harder

Would suggest that is the case and that you are right that the 2012 white is 2011 yellow compound.
 
tooncheese, Brogan, teabagyokel, Galahad, KekeTheKing, sushifiesta, ExtremeNinja, Johnny Carwash, mjo, Josh (and others!)

I noticed something in China that could be quite relevant to our tyre analysis and I think we need a bit of help with data collection and validation. I don't know if one or two of you can help?

In our analysis, we assume that a used tyre has done precisely 3 laps (out, flying and in) so on lap 1 of the race it is on its fourth lap (the same applies when it is fitted in the race - Pirelli state that the tyre is either New or Used).

What has started happening is that a lot of cars have been arriving in Q3 already having used all three sets of options, and are doing Q3 on used tyres in order to get ahead of those who choose not to post a lap. For the analysis therefore, we should be treating this car's first race lap as the 7th on the tyre. This happened to Alonso in China (source Autosport).

Button also put the option tyres on in Q1 and did an outlap, so one of his option sets had done 4 rather than 3 laps by the race. He only used two sets of options in the race though so whether he used the 4 lap set I can't say. This is interesting but perhaps useless unless we can say when that set was next used - if you know any sources though...?

The Alonso example is more important because I have a feeling that we are going to see a lot of this in Q1 this year - even the Red Bulls and McLarens having to burn a set of options - then having to do Q3 on a used set. This might lead to the car being as much as 3s slower over the first stint of the race, so if you see any cars doing this, please can you post it so that we can include it?

What would help I think would be if you could post any examples of drivers doing Q3 on used rubber somewhere that TC can pick up and adjust the race analysis when he does that?

I tend to end up watching with my kids which makes noticing the finer details like this quite tricky:dizzy:
 
Here's something I noticed having a look at Mike's shiny new toy, regarding Raikkonen and Vettel at China:

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If you notice Raikkonen and Vettel, in their third stint (both on primes?) they start losing places around 20 laps into their stint. Indeed, in their second stint (which some idiot has mislabelled :whistle:) Vettel loses his first position on lap 30 - again its 21 laps into an option stint.

I don't know if I'm barking up a wrong tree here jez101 & tooncheese, but I did find it slightly interesting.
 
I think Kimi's situation was magnified by the fact that he fitted used prime tyres on lap 28 (Vettel's were at least new on lap 31) but you are right that after 20+ laps, there was not much left.

In general, the data is showing clearly how important the tyres are for overtaking. Of the 90 recorded, I think I counted only 8 here that were done by cars on older tyres.
 
Very tricky/impossible to correctly include the starting age of the tyre in the analysis as you say. You'd need to know the exact set of tyres used in every stint in both qualifying and the race, and I'm pretty sure that information isn't available.

Fiddling with a couple of notable drivers or exceptions at the end is probably the way to go. Even then it will be a struggle to correctly adjust anything other than the first stint of drivers who got in to Q3.
 
China was also greater confused than normal as many of the fastest times in q3 were set on the first run, which is usually done on scrubbed tyres from q2, as the track got worse as the session went on.

That would make me think that some of the tyres that drivers started on may have had 6 laps (2 flying laps) on. That may go some way to explain some of the earlier than expected pit stops.
 
The Pits, sorry for leaving you off the initial list. Last year when we were developing this it was quite easy. The top ten would have done prime runs in q1 and the first run in q2 then options to get out of q2 leaving two new sets for two runs in q3. Those that had burned a set would do just one run on new options in q3 and those that had used options in q1 simply didn't go out in q3. They didn't want to start on 6 lap old options or even 3 lap old primes.

This year with even the caterhams threatening to be faster on options than others on primes, I am expecting almost everyone to be out of tyres by q3 so it would be good to capture whatever annecdotes we can to piece the puzzle together.
 
I don't know how sensible this is, I'm thinking out loud, but what could be possible (although it would still require a lot of manual work) is to use the average age of a driver's sets of tyres at the end of qualifying. So if a driver does three laps on prime tyres and six laps on option tyres in qualifying, for example, the average starting age is 1 lap for prime and 2 laps for option, and these could be the values used in the spreadsheet.

This method means that you are pretty much always using the wrong starting value, but hopefully you end up missing the correct value by fewer laps. It really wouldn't work well in the case where a driver has done many laps on just one set of tyres though,

To improve on this, might it be possible to retrospectively determine which tyres were new sets and which were used sets based on the information from the spreadsheet? Then you could set the age of the new sets to 0, and the age of the old sets to the average number of laps completed across the remaining sets. So if a driver has one new set of options at the end of qualifying, and completed six laps on options, you would have one starting age of 0 laps, and two starting ages of 6/2 = 3 laps.

It just gets more complicated by the minute...
 
Welcome to the Tyre Analysis for the 2012 Bahrain Grand Prix. This venue has previously seen the joint hottest race at 40°C in 2005. Whilst it was not as warm this year, the unusually high temperatures promised an interesting race.

The spreadsheet works by collecting data from the raw lap times, and it can work out how much fuel has been burned, and it also takes into account tyre age and condition at the start of the stint. Unusual lap times due to close proximity to other cars or errors are filtered out.

Once again Pirelli chose the yellow Soft tyre as the Option and the white Medium tyre as the Prime. And just like China several different strategies were available, that would produce a similar result.

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The Option tyre was slightly more popular this week, with several top drivers running two stints on it. It did not have the durability though. All of the driver’s curves are going towards vertical not too long into the stint. You can see how Räikkönen, Hamilton and Alonso all lose grip vey suddenly. This may be due to spending large portions of the race in other cars gearboxes, as Webber, Vettel, and Kobayashi have much more linear curves.

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It is clear to see how this was the favoured race tyre, there are no sudden onslaughts of degradation as the Option tyre suffered. That said, the green line is not too dissimilar to that of the Option (they are on the same graph later on.) No single drivers stands out to me as having particularly good or adverse wear, but feel free to leave your own interpretations if you think that I have missed something.
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Kobayashi and di Resta both attempted two-stop strategies hoping to gain track position against their three-stopping rivals. Both Drivers went for two Prime stints and one Option stint. Di Resta spent just 14 laps on a brand new set of Options before switching to the Primes, and you can see on the graph how the curve is starting to point skywards. The flaw in Sauber’s plan was trying to do 26 laps on an already used set of Option tyres. Whilst he was having a better time than di Resta, 26 laps was too far, and after losing several positions Kobayashi was forced to pit and sit out the remaining laps on another set of soft’s. On lap 40 he was 2.5 seconds adrift of Alonso, by the time he pitted it was almost twenty.
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After Felipe Massa’s best result of 2012, and his first points, I think we ought to see how he stacked up against his teammate. For the Option tyre, most obviously, Alonso is always going faster. However he only used them for the first 9 laps of the race before spending the remainder on fresh Primes. Massa used an old set of Options for the first stint for 8 laps, and then the new set he saved from qualifying for 16 laps in his third stint. I think that will explain why Massa seems to have good wear after 11 laps; it is because all that data is collected from new tyres.

The Prime on the other hand, on which Alonso spent three stints, and Massa two, is much more interesting. It shows that Massa was, on average, quicker at the start of a stint, but suffered higher wear. At one point in the race Massa was right behind Hamilton and Alonso, but as the stint wore on he fell away, but not by as much as has been seen in the past, so Bahrain definitely seems to be a step in the right direction.

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It has also been requested that I post the leaders in detail. Here it is, feel free to draw your own conclusions. :whistle:
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Just like China the compounds are very close, the option is a small amount faster, but it remains so for as long as anyone was using it. I have never before seen the two wear patterns to be so closely matched, and with China producing very similar results; it can only suggest that the Soft and Medium should not be paired again unless one or both have radical structure changes.

Unfortunately there is no data from last year, so no comparisons can be had with the old compounds.

In three weeks time, at Barcelona, the Soft and Hard tyre will be used, and hopefully there will be sufficient difference in the compounds to mix it up.

But until then...

tooncheese, jez101, sushifiesta
 
Great stuff. Any comment on the difference between the first two charts and why the final one appears to show such similarity between the two compounds? Are the lower order teams/drivers shifting the overall picture?

I think some of the legends are erroneous on the middle set of charts, I couldn't quite follow those.
 
Great stuff. Any comment on the difference between the first two charts and why the final one appears to show such similarity between the two compounds? Are the lower order teams/drivers shifting the overall picture?

I checked this because I was asking myself the same question.

In the overall charts what happens is that a driver who hits the cliff puts in one or maybe two bad laps and then stops meaning that there are no more samples from them beyond that point. Meanwhile, others who are still doing ok keep going and adding data points that are well below these points.

The raw scatter graph below shows what I mean - there are guys who by lap 16 are 4s down (eg Vergne) on their personal best, while others are just 1.75s down (eg di Resta). Those that hit 4s then stop (or the race finishes) meaning that the only data beyond that is from those whose tyres are not so bad.

I'd like to present this better because the individual charts show the cliff for the soft - there clearly was one - but it happens at different points for different drivers. I'm just not sure how
 
Ah, I see. That is a tricky problem. I suppose you can't extrapolate for those drivers who stop earlier, since many of the lines go exponential once past 'the cliff'.
 
This is the scatter chart (which didn't post when I simply pasted it in).

Basically, yes Galahad :)
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I can try extrapolation to a standard end point I guess. I hadn't thought of that :thumbsup:. Not sure it is going to work - Alonso is 15s/lap slower extrapolated to lap 20 whereas Hulkenberg is just over 3s/lap off.
 
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