Downward Spiral for Ferrari?


Race Winner
Whilst it is too early to rule out the Italian giants, it looks as though this season is going to be an uphill struggle for Ferrari. Yet would a poor year in 2012 be merely a temporary blip or would it be indicative of a downward trend for the Maranello team?

Since the break up of the so-called 'dream team' of Schumacher, Brawn, Byrne and Todt, Ferrari have won a single WDC and two Constructors' titles. Here are where Ferrari have finished in the WCC and how many podiums and wins they have had in each season:

Season WCC Standing Wins Podiums (including wins)
2007 1st 9 22
2008 1st 8 19
2009 4th 1 6
2010 3rd 5 15
2011 3rd 1 10

2009 is the anomaly in this table as the new rule changes severely hampered Ferrari, Mclaren and BMW (who had of course briefly challenged in 2008). However, it is clear that apart from this, there has been a gradual decline in Ferrari's competitiveness over the last four years. The stats for last year in particular are flattered by Fernando Alonso.

Here is a table for Ferrari between their 1983 WCC and the arrival of Schumacher (I am fully aware of Todt being there from 1993 and this could be seen as the start of their revival :)):

Season WCC Standing Wins Podiums (including wins)
1983 1st 4 12
1984 2nd 1 8
1985 2nd 2 10
1986 4th 0 5
1987 4th 2 6
1988 2nd 1 8
1989 3rd 3 9
1990 2nd 6 14
1991 3rd 0 8
1992 4th 0 2
1993 4th 0 3
1994 3rd 1 11
1995 3rd 1 11

The Scuderia have not finished below 4th place since 1981, so is it really suitable to talk of a Ferrari crisis? They were incredibly inconsistent from 1983 until the appointment of Todt. Yet the trend over the last 4 years, coupled with a possible barren season if pre-season and this weekend are to be considered, seems to suggest that Ferrari are going to be fighting for points rather than wins.

It is hardly surprising that Ferrari have struggled so much since the departures of the incredibly talented foursome of Schumi, Brawn, Byrne and Todt. Transition periods are hard to take for such a successful team. However, for them to regain their competitive streak, will di Montezemolo lose patience and look to replace his current bunch of team leaders? Aldo Costa has already paid for failure to be replaced by Pat Fry. Will others follow?

Fernando Alonso certainly will not tolerate a slow car which he will have to drag to places it shouldn't be and if the current trend continues, may look elsewhere on the paddock.

However, only a fool would write off Ferrari remaining behind the front runners for a concerted period of time. If this proves to be a dog of a car, though, they may concentrate on next year before we hit halfway.

So what do you guys think? Are Ferrari in for a barren spell? Is this just a transition period and temporary blip? And if so, when will they be competitive again?

Although it is too early to say, I personally expect them to develop until the title is out of reach and grab a few podiums but they should be back to winning ways in 2013.
This is the same thing from boyle's tables, but presented as graphs. (I don't do tables, but graphs, mmm, yum-yum!!)

The 1983/95 one shows a lean spell 1991/93 and a steady decline in WCC ranking from 1st/2nd at the beginning to 3rd/4th at the end.

The 2007-11 graph shows a steady and marked decline in wins and podiums and, either side of the terrible 2009, two 1sts, but after it two 3rds.

Make of it what you will !

and after much messing about, here's the graph (I hope!!)


Well, I've tried copy'n'paste, uploading PDFs and now uploading JPG, and it still looks awful.
If you click on it you'll see it in all its glory.

I'm so hacked off about it I'm going to rip the tops off a couple of cans just to see what's inside

53 minutes later edit:
Hurrah!! I can see my graphs - yippee!

Thank you whoever did that.

I'm now going to rip a couple more cans open in celebration !!!
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