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Strange how with the advantage of hindsight you seem to make this strategy failure so predictable.

Someone posted a link to comments from Paul Hembery yesterday

http://www.gpupdate.net/en/f1-news/265491/pirelli-hamilton-could-four-stop-on-sunday/

where he suggested the Supersofts would last 12-14 laps (which they did for LH, 14-16 for JB/SV) and 25 laps for the Softs.

You claim it was 'forseeable', but don't actually explain how you came to this assertion; in none of their practice sessions did they do a long run on that duration. Admittedly, there didn't seem to be much degradation as judged by laptime.

However, I think their strategy made complete sense, accounting several factors:

1. the supersoft should be in the region of 0.5-0.8s quicker (this wasn't ultimately the case but couldn't be predicted.

2. Hamilton was harder on the tyres and doing 30 laps would have been a real stretch

3. 30 laps split in a ratio something like 12-14:18-16 would mean he was always on fresher tyres than those around him.