Things ... Welcome to the Future (2018 - 2019 Silly Season)

[Il_leone]

Right I am still getting my head around the swerve that Daniel did on everyone which was brilliant ... just when he thought we are in for another boring end and boom - the bolt out of the blue we need

Now that has shaken things up

Renault - confirmed - wow I am excited to team Enstone
Mercedes - confirmed

Red Bull - Verstappen with

Gasly - who is now ahead of Sainz in preference
Sainz - they don't want him and Verstappen to implode the team but he has been treated as the lesser driver from the moment Helmut put Verstappen ahead of him in Toro Rosso so why would this change?

Alonso - Red Bull will not have a driver who has finished in the top 3 of a drivers championship since 2008 if they go with any of the above. Fernando can still mix with the best and perhaps make up the deficiencies in the Honda power

Ferrari - Vettel with

LeClerc - a man for the future
Raikkonen - - Ferrari have a problem as they will need two new drivers soon if they delay their succession planning keeping hold of Kimi

Sauber - Ericsson with

Giovinazzi/LeClerc - see Ferrari
Perez - Mexican sponsors link - no point staying at FI

Williams
?/ ? Stroll wants to leave -who cares , Sirotkin is doing his best with what he has , Russell - Mercedes want to place him at the team and it seems to be gathering moment

Situation is dire for the team

Force India

Ocon - can't see him going anywhere else now his move to Renault is blocked until Merc promote him ahead of Bottas
Russell - Two young Merc drivers is not something Toto wants in one team
Perez - see Sauber

Dependent who owns the team
Stroll - Daddy's money will help his FI career and take his moaning elsewhere
Latifi - apparently thinks he has talent
Rossi - the best of this three

Mclaren
Alonso - make up your mind you're holding the team back
Sainz - see Red Bull
Vandoore/ Norris - see above

Toro Rosso

Hartley - 0% - nothing from team bosses saying otherwise
Sainz/ Gasly - see Red Bull
Ticktum - the next Red Bull junior with promise
Norris/Vandoorne - see Mclaren

Haas

K Mag - deserves it with
Grosjean - lucky if he keeps his seat
LeClerc/Giovinazzi - see Ferrari
Perez - see Sauber/ FI

 

[Angel]

We all thought we had an idea how the drivers merry go round would go, now Daniel Ricciardo has gone and ruined it all by making a move none of us saw coming, how very dare he?

So yeah a lot of seats are not confirmed yet and several drivers are looking not to have one when the music stops. At least it gives us something to talk about and speculate on over the summer break.

 

[RasputinLives]

I bet the journalists that write about the silly season of F1 are delighted as it's about the first time in 4 years anything significant has happened.

 

[F1Brits_90]

Is it wrong to say that its a tough choice for red bull as ive mentioned on another thread Neither really at moment. Scream the quality of a red bull driver. Could be another kyvat. Gasly had 1 standout race. Sainz is thought of so highly at renault that within 11 races of signing him they were looking to get rid

Might have to look outside for only the 2nd time (excluding inaugural season). I would like to see alonso on a 2 yr deal. Just for put up or shut up idea

 

[Izumi]

I bet the journalists that write about the silly season of F1 are delighted as it's about the first time in 4 years anything significant has happened.

Vettel to Ferrari wasn't significant? Rosberg leaving wasn't significant? Verstappent's promotion wasn't significant? Do I need to continue?

 

[RasputinLives]

Neither Verstappen's nor Rosbergs retirement happened during silly season. They were both unexpected and instant. The last significant move during contract negotiation season that journalists got to write and speculate about was Vettel which happened 4 years ago.

But no you definitely don't need to continue.

 

[Il_leone]

In terms of bolts out of the blue - those that unexpectedly trigger driver movements because up to that point there was no press or suggestions that the driver was angling to move


Rosberg - retiring 2016 - 5 days after completing the championship - signed a 3 year contract apparently but secretly he wanted to retire if he became world champion. This threw a lifeline to everyone in the paddock but first choices Red Bull drivers were both tied down, Vettel was never an option nor was Alonso

It boiled down to Bottas or Wehrlein. Williams would not part unless compensated massively so got cheaper engines but did not take the consideration of Wehrlein who has caused problems for all teams thinking he is the best thing since sliced bread. You wonder why did not Mercedes promote Wehrlein if they have been pushing for his development? Pascal must be sulking somewhere back in DTM that he could be world champion right now

Vettel - 7 years with Red Bull / Toro Rosso including 4 championship but decided he wanted to emulate Schumacher and win with Ferrari which unexpectedly opened a seat at Red Bull. For Seb's final year zilch wins and a trouncing by Ricciardo having never got to terms with the new regulations. Red Bull decided to promote Kyvat rather than Vergne immediately only to demote him just 18 months later for Verstappen

Mansell's retirement in 1992 just two races from becoming world champion . Nige quits F1 rather than defends his title in 1993 fed up with the politics instigated by Prost. Given the opportunity to defend his crown , Nige was criticised as the only person who did not want to defend it in the best car at the time for 1993. Judging by Prost' s results in 1993 , he could have well given Prost a real run for his money

Emerson Fittipaldi 1975 - Two time world champion Emo sensationally quit Mclaren to set up his own F1 team with his brother and Brazilian backing. It was a bold move given he was probably one of the top 3 drivers around then. The whole venture was a disaster and Emo retired early in is 30's and was never a front runner again. Mclaren went on to sign James Hunt who started one of the most famous rivalries in F1 with Lauda , Emo could have won more titles with Mclaren than waste his years at his won team

 

[Il_leone]

So Max wants to veto a reunion with Carlos at Red Bull - well will Helmut listen to him then and screw over Carlos once again?

https://www.planetf1.com/news/verstappen-opposes-sainz-reunion-at-red-bull/

 

[RasputinLives]

Yes. They've invested too much time and money in Max not too.

 

[Il_leone]

Then are you agreeing what I've been saying all long Sainz needs to sever ties with Red Bull because he is always in Verstappen's shadow

 

[RasputinLives]

Yes. I think I've been thinking that since before be ever came into F1 because it was obvious when he was passed over for the Torro Rosso drive for Verstappen. If not for Vettel's shock exit they wouldn't have promoted him. I think I talked about it in the introduction thread in the drivers section.

 

[Ruslan]

The nice thing about this move is that it gives us a measure of Hulkenberg, Perez, Ocon and Sainz compared to DR and Verstappen. Hulkenberg and Perez were teammates for three years at Force India, so we have a pretty good sense of how they compare with each other. Perez and Ocon have been teammate for two years. So, now we get to compare DR with Hulkenberg, which I think will be very telling.

Just for the record, the three years Hulkenberg and Perez were together:

Points
Perez: 59 + 78 +101 = 238
Hulkenberg: 96 + 58 + 72 = 226

Highest Finish
Perez: 3rd + 3rd + 3rd (x2) = 3rd (x4)
Hulkenberg: 5th (x4) + 6th (x3) + 4th = 4th

Qualifying Duel
Perez: 7 + 8 + 9 = 24
Hulkenberg: 12 + 11 + 12 = 34

Highest grid
Perez: 5th + 4th + 2nd = 2nd
Hulkenberg: 4th + 5th + 3rd = 3rd

Perez vs Ocon for almost two years (through Hungary 2019):

Points
Perez: 100 + 30 = 130
Ocon: 87 + 29 = 116

Highest Finish
Perez: 4th + 3rd = 3rd
Ocon: 5th (x2) + 6th = 5th (x2)

Qualifying Duel
Perez: 13 + 3 = 16
Ocon: 7 + 9 = 16

Highest Grid
Perez: 6th (x2) + 8th (x2) = 6th (x2)
Ocon: 5th + 6th = 5th

Verstappen vs DR for almost three years (from Spain 2016 through Hungary 2019):

Points:
Verstappen: 204 - 13 = 191 + 168 + 105 = 464
DR: 256 - 36 = 220 + 200 + 118 = 538

Highest Finish
Verstappen: 1st + 1st (x2) + 1st = 1st (x4)
DR: 1st + 1st + 1st (x2) = 1st (x4)

Qualifying Duel
Vestappen: 6 + 13 + 9 = 28
DR: 11 + 7 + 3 = 21

Highest Grid
Verstappen: 2nd + 2nd (x3) + 3rd = 2nd (x4)
DR: 1st + 3rd + 1st = 1st (x2)


So assuming that you consider Hamilton, Alonso, Vettel and Verstappen to be the top four drivers in F1 (which many do): then, who is the 5th best?

 

[gethinceri]

I don’t, but I’ll put Ricciardo there.

 

[RasputinLives]

I think Ricciardo is going to get absolutely whipped in qualifying by Hulkenberg but come out on top on race day because that's the sort of driver be is. Doesn't make be any less of a top driver just his style. I've never seen a breakdown of Alain Prost's 'team mate qualifying duels', mainly because back then no one gave a shit, but I bet he got trounced too.

 

[RasputinLives]

Also Ruslan I haven't seen anything to suggest you can put Verstappen in that top 4 and not Ricciardo. You can argue they are equal but I don't see any argument for him being higher.

To be clear being younger and having more potential is not an argument.

 

[Il_leone]

RasputinLives I do think Carlos has to start thinking if he aint get his chance at Red Bull then he must leave. I remember one of the first questions he had to be asked was whether his Dad is the reason he is in F1 and/or how does he feel not being first pick before he even turned a wheel . Talk about pressure on him to prove

--------------------------------

Ruslan based on the drivers being paid the top 4 are Hamilton, Vettel , Alonso and Verstappen. Ricciardo must be aggrieved because he has beaten Vettel and Verstappen as teammates so in his eyes he deserves to be paid in the same bracket which Red Bull supposedly cannot afford despite the amount of money they make

Verstappen has not had a solid season to show he is ready to be a world championship challenger, last year was all the breakdowns but this year he has delivered some very amateurish performances

Prost and Button both do not have great quali records against their fast teammates but nobody bothers looking at that when the results on Sunday matters most

 

[F1Brits_90]

Ruslan also cant forget that the DNF's do scew the results because in 2015 & 2016 perez had 1 dnf hulk had 10. also just dont rate perez for a reason, as he done well beaten his teammate last 3 years but I feel he not consistent through the whole season & is more of an opportunist has 4 good races a season & is talk about because of 1 podium he gets which is good for midfield

for me Alonso is good & really does out perfrom a car but 14th > 7th is far easier than 3rd > 1st. I would say top 4 is Hamilton vettel Verstappen Riccardo

 

[Il_leone]

Ruslan I am fierce critic of Perez

- his 2012 results where he got 3 podiums which earned him the Mclaren drive was more down to having the right tyres than pure pace and ability . He went through a phase of no points scored for 6 races once he was announced as Hamilton;s replacement at Mclaren

It was a tad early when you consider other candidates like Hulkenberg could be considered - some thought it was also down to money

HIs season came when Mclaren were going backwards which did not help but he spent his first few races bashing wheels with every world champion that season except Vettel who off course was never troubled with his superior car

He was dropped on the basis his race pace compared to K Mag just was not strong according to the simulator results. Also the last race I think Button managed to make up 33 seconds on him despite having an inferior strategy

His late drop suddenly made him available for seats at Force India and Lotus, He got the seat but I think $10m sponsorship did also help and he was quoted saying "Force India was the team he wanted to join" when really it was only because Mclaren dropped him. First season Hulkenberg dominated him, the following two seasons he started to get the better of Nico partly aided by some unfortunate accidents his teammate was involved him like the startline crash in Singapore and his wing collapsing in Hungary. To me it seemed Hulkenberg's form dropped a bit once he was not going to be signed by Ferrari

Perez does get the odd podium here and there through attrition strategy rather than race pace BUT he's talked about the Ferrari drive and wanting to be world champion using sponsorship connections but Ferrari keep persisting with Raikkonen because there are no other better choices apparently

So then why is not Perez being picked unless Vettel thinks he is going to be a real threat? Also an opportunity to join Renault was offered to him first before they went to Hulkenberg. He turned it down citing lack of leadership but I would have thought with Team Enstone and Renault's backgrounds they will get it right eventually so it is worth the risk considering he aint going any further up with Force India and his gamble to land a drive with Ferrari has not paid off . I think the ship has sailed and he is really going to be stuck in the midfield

 

[Angel]

I truly can't understand why Verstappen is rated that much more highly than Ricciardo. Sure Max made a big splash when he came into the sport, he's had some good races and some good wins. But when you look at the mistakes he's made, well he's made a lot more than Ricciardo I'd say. Daniel has made some great passes as has Max, had some great wins, been as exciting to watch on track etc. yet somehow he's not rated as highly by the teams and I simply don't understand it. It's the fickle finger of fate I guess, Max was in the right place at the right time and his face fits, Daniel has somehow found himself doing more or less all the same things but is not in favour in the same way for whatever reason. It makes no sense.

Oh and as for Perez, Ruslan I have never been keen on him for some reason. I can't even put my finger on why. He's always seemed like a solid midfield driver but not good enough to make that final leap to be a great one. His one season at McLaren showed that off perfectly.

 

[Izumi]

I truly can't understand why Verstappen is rated that much more highly than Ricciardo.

Rated by whom? His fans? His boss see increased sale of his drinks by 20 something generation?

Abuse of sound statistical analysis based on credible input data appears to be commonplace on F1 forums. Be it evaluation of teammates or between peers. Fact is, Verstappen is not rated as highly at the moment by almost all of his peers, claiming number of people with access. He creates buzz, and commercial people strive on that. A few - mostly spontaneous - comments I recall hearing in past (say) 18 months:

Alonso: this guy is dangerous.
Hamilton: this guy is dangerous.
Raikonnen: this guy is dangerous.
Ricciardo: F*****g looser.
Vettel: he needs to calm down.