Overtaking for the GP Victory

Discussion in 'Formula One Discussion' started by KekeTheKing, Nov 3, 2014.

  1. KekeTheKing

    KekeTheKing Banned Supporter

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    The 2014 season has been truly amazing for a number of reasons, but there is one aspect that I find incredibly intriguing. In Austin we saw the winner of the race overtake the man that finished 2nd for the Sixth time this year. It's certainly the most we've seen in recent times, and I am going to try and progress as far back in time as the data allows.

    Here is the breakdown from 2007-2014.

    2007 (Once)
    Europe - Alonso on Massa (Lap 56)

    2008 (Once)
    Germany - Hamilton on Piquet (Lap 60)

    2009 (Once)
    Belgium - Raikkonen on Fisichella (Lap 5)

    2010 (Once)
    Turkey - Hamilton on Button (Lap 49)

    2011 (Twice)
    China - Hamilton on Vettel (Lap 52)
    Germany - Hamilton on Alonso (Lap 33)

    2012 (Four Times)
    Malaysia - Alonso on Perez (Lap 16)
    Great Britain - Webber on Alonso (Lap 48)
    Italy - Hamilton on Perez (Lap 29)
    United States - Hamilton on Vettel (Lap 42)

    2013 (Thrice)
    Malaysia - Vettel on Webber (Lap 46)
    Bahrain - Vettel on Raikkonen (Lap 15)
    Spain - Alonso on Raikkonen (Lap 39)

    2014 (Six Times)
    Bahrain - Hamilton on Rosberg (Lap 19)
    Canada - Ricciardo on Rosberg (Lap 68)
    Hungary - Ricciardo on Alonso (Lap 68)
    Singapore - Hamilton on Vettel (Lap 54)
    Japan - Hamilton on Rosberg (Lap 29)
    United States - Hamilton on Rosberg (Lap 24)

    So in the last 8 years, the Grand Prix winner has only overtaken the second placed man on 19 occasions, with 1/3 of those coming this season. Amazingly, Lewis Hamilton has won 10 of these 19 GP. Alonso, has three wins. Vettel, and Ricciardo have two wins a piece.

    I'm probably gonna have to go back to the 70's to find another season featuring 6 races with the victor overtaking P2 on track.
     
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  3. snowy

    snowy Champion Elect

    Mercedes are causing me a lot of strategic despair but I am actually enjoying this season. It's so much better than the singular SV/RB cake walks.
     
  4. KekeTheKing

    KekeTheKing Banned Supporter

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    Huge credit to the CTA Overtaking Database for assisting me with this data. I've just gone back to 2004, the final season with detailed overtaking info. 1981 and 82 are next up though.

    2006 (No occasions)

    2005 (Once)
    Japan - Raikkonen on Fisichella (Lap 53)

    2004 (Once)
    United States - Schumacher on Barrichello (L6)

    Edit - Adding 81 and 82

    1981 (Once)
    Monaco - Villeneuve on Jones (Lap 75)

    1982 (Twice)
    San Marino - Pironi on Villeneuve (Lap 60)
    Switzerland - Rosberg on Prost (Lap 79)
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2014
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  5. The Artist.....

    The Artist..... Champion Elect

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    KekeTheKing doesn't Button's overtake of Vettel in Montreal 2011 count? I'm also 90% sure he overtook Hamilton in Hungary...
     
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  6. snowy

    snowy Champion Elect

    1994-2009 is problematic though isn't it? All the overtaking was done in the pits. >:(
     
  7. The Artist.....

    The Artist..... Champion Elect

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    1991

    French Grand Prix: Mansell overtook Prost for the lead (lap 54)
    British GP: Mansell overtook Senna for the lead (lap 1)
    German GP: Mansell overtook Alesi (lap 20)u
    Italian GP: Mansell passed Senna (lap 33)

    Spanish GP is tricky; Mansell passed Berger on lap 20 and romped away; Berger then later had an electrical failure.
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2014
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  8. KekeTheKing

    KekeTheKing Banned Supporter

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    The Artist.....

    It was decided at the time that Button/Vettel would not be ruled an overtake as Seb was off the circuit. And yes JB passed Lewis at Hungary 2011, but Hamilton did not finish 2nd in the race. There were 4 such occasions in '11 where there was a pass for the lead, but the guy overtaken did not finish P2.

    Vet/Mas at Malaysia
    But/Ham at Hungary
    Vet/But at Belgium
    Vet/Alo at Italy
     
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  9. The Artist.....

    The Artist..... Champion Elect

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    KekeTheKing

    I'd include all cases where someone has overtaken for the lead, and then gone on to win; firstly, it will make the lap charts easier to fathom, but secondly, what's important is that the race was won by overtaking, not that the driver who was overtake finished the race in second (remember that pre 2000, reliability meant that many more cars retired....)

    (PS- I figured Button Vettel might have been discounted for Vettel falling off the track).
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2014
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  10. KekeTheKing

    KekeTheKing Banned Supporter

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    You can sort the data any number of ways.

    In the non-refueling era there have been a number of inconsequential passes for the lead. Many times the leader has pitted and come out behind an inherently slower car at the end of its tire life and made easy work of them. I'm much more interested in identifying the scenarios where a driver has to earn it by overtaking his closest competition.
     
  11. Jen

    Jen Here be dragons. Contributor

    Have you ignored/factored in team orders?
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2014
  12. KekeTheKing

    KekeTheKing Banned Supporter

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    The only one's I can see that may have been affected were Malaysia 2013 and US 2004.

    Germany 2010 is already excluded.
     
  13. Incubus

    Incubus Champion Elect

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    Europe 2007? (Alonso on Massa)
     
  14. KekeTheKing

    KekeTheKing Banned Supporter

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    Thank You Incubus!

    I failed to display that entire list. 2007 is on the board!!
     
  15. Incubus

    Incubus Champion Elect

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    I remembered that one escecially for the hilarious spectacle of Alonso and Massa telling each to **** off in italian in front of the camera in the pit-lane sfter the race. :snigger:
     
  16. KekeTheKing

    KekeTheKing Banned Supporter

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    I'm going about this project in a fairly piece-meal way. I just sorted out 1988-1993 and I've decided to make videos of these crucial maneuvers so look for those soon. Here is the raw data.

    1988 (Thrice)
    Canada - Senna on Prost (Lap 19)
    France - Prost on Senna (Lap 61)
    Japan - Senna on Prost (Lap 28)

    1989 (4 Occasions)
    Brazil - Mansell on Prost (Laps 28 and 47)
    Germany - Senna on Prost (Lap 43)
    Hungary - Mansell on Senna (Lap 58)
    Japan - Senna on Nannini (Lap 51)

    1990 (5 Occasions)
    United States - Senna on Alesi (Lap 35)
    San Marino - Patrese on Berger (Lap 51)
    France - Prost on Capelli (Lap 78)
    Germany - Senna on Nannini (Lap 34)
    Portugal - Mansell on Senna (Lap 50)

    1991 (Thrice)
    Mexico - Patrese on Mansell (Lap 15)
    France - Mansell on Prost (Lap 55)
    Italy - Mansell on Senna (Lap 34)

    1992 (No Occasions)

    1993 (Thrice)
    South Africa - Prost on Senna (Lap 24)
    Brazil - Senna on Hill (Lap 42)
    Japan - Senna on Prost (Lap 21)
     
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  17. KekeTheKing

    KekeTheKing Banned Supporter

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    Here is the action from 1988

     
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  18. Mephistopheles

    Mephistopheles Banned Contributor

    That kinda proves my point about stats being meaningless doesn't it..
     
  19. KekeTheKing

    KekeTheKing Banned Supporter

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    No, not quite. The Artist and I were discussing different ways to sort and display statistics.

    I find Overtakes that lead directly to a victory fascinating and I believe others at cliptheapex do too. I'm not trying to prove anything here.

    Sorting through this data has nothing to do whatsoever with the value of statistics in general.
     
  20. Mephistopheles

    Mephistopheles Banned Contributor

    Which is exactly my point, the way you sort data and then display that data as statistics affects the outcome of what the original data means and so stats on their own are in fact totally meaningless but are not surprisingly used extensively by politicians..
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2014
  21. KekeTheKing

    KekeTheKing Banned Supporter

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    I decided that I wanted to see how often a GP winner had to overtake the man that finished second. It's really just as simple as that. Your thoughts on data and statistics are totally irrelevant to this discussion, but good job taking yet another thread completely off track! :cheer:
     

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