Great thread Mr 101 (are you my long-lost twin brother
)
I'm totally with you on being able to see the greats within a very short time of them starting to race. In my life I have watched Senna, Schumacher, Button, Alonso, Hamilton and of course Vettel make massive impressions almost straight away. To that list I would add Alessandro Nannini and Jean Alesi as drivers who I thought were special, but didn't win for different reasons. I did under estimate Hakkinen a bit, but I was at Uni at the time and not paying such close attention
On Vettel though, please allow me the liberty to quote something I wrote on
a BBC comment on 2nd March 2009
Vettel is the next F1 superstar.
F1 drivers have always been ranked by how well they have done in the wet because it levels the playing field. Monza 2008...
Vettel is on his way through the ranks to a top car. Maybe the Red Bull is it, but maybe they just got the jump on the really big teams by signing him to their junior team (which no one else could have done).
The question really is whether the Red Bull is as good as Sebastien Vettel or whether he will make another step up at the end of 2009.
He will be world champion. If I was Ron or Stefano he would already be my driver - whatever the price.
This is of course self-agrandisement but is also kind of central to answering your question: Vettel is still only 24. He is already a double world champion, but he isn't going anywhere. Any future world champion in the next 15 years is going have to beat Seb.
He isn't going to win them all. So much depends on the car of course and McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes all have the ability to produce that winning machine. Any future world champion has to be in one of those cars and seats are limited. Hamilton still only 26. Alonso, 30, Button, 31. First someone has to get in one of the other 4 seats that just might win, then they have to beat one of these guys...
I have said Nico (26) and I honestly think he will at some stage. He is good enough and well respected enough to have a regular seat in one of the big 4 teams and crucially has beaten all his team mates (in my book anyway), except perhaps Webber in his rookie year. He is giving himself every chance that he will be in the right car at the right time and beat the other guy to take the opportunity he will undoubtedly get.
I'm not backing anyone else at even odds, but if you offered say say 3/1 I might think of adding Perez. Of the other current drivers? I can't see it. Of the future ones? I have no evidence beyond the young driver tests (people who follow GP3 and GP2 will have a better view than me), but
I haven't seen anything yet that tells me that Vergne, Wickens and Bottas
won't win the title.
It's a tough time to be a young driver.