Grand Prix 2018 Japanese Grand Prix Practice, Qualifying & Race Discussion

After a fairly soporific Russian GP the circus moves nearly 7,000 miles (by road according to Bing maps) to Suzuka in Japan. The Japanese have a love affair with the automobile and Japanese car companies make up 4 of the top 15 car manufacturers in the world with Toyota top of the list, just above VW.

Japan also has a long association with Formula One. Many Japanese manufacturers have made cars and engines which have raced in F1, with varying degrees of success. Honda prepared a car and engine in the 60’s and Richie Ginther won the Mexican GP in 1965. They had further success in 1968 when John Surtees won the Italian GP but the team withdrew from racing after the death of Jo Schlesser in a car with a magnesium chassis caught fire quite horrifically.

Honda came back as an engine supplier in the 80’s and pretty much wiped the floor with everyone with their motor bolted in the back of the Williams and McLaren chassis. Yamaha and Subaru have made engines and Toyota and Honda coupled their motors to their own chassis in the early 2000’s, albeit with little success (I just remembered Button's win in Hungary with the Honda engine - sorry Jenson fans, what a lovely day that was)

I don’t think I need to remind anyone of the Honda’s latest foray into the world of F1 engine supply.

Japan has also supplied the grid with 20 drivers. The first was Hiroshi Fushido in 1975 with the Japanese made Maki chassis coupled to the inevitable Cosworth DFV. The most successful Japanese F1 driver is Kamui Kobayashi who amassed 125 points in his career as well as taking a podium in Japan for Sauber in 2012 and fastest lap in the same year in China. Two other Japanese drivers have stood on the podium, Takumo Sato at Indianapolis in 2004, the Michelin tyre debacle, and Aguri Suzuki for Larousse in Japan in 1990, the one with the infamous crash between Prost and Senna at the first corner.

So what of the race itself? Lewis Hamilton goes in to the final phase of events with a healthy lead in the Championship and Mercedes showed in Russia that they will do anything to ensure that their man takes the drivers title. The constructor’s title is already pretty much nailed on for the Stuttgart team so expect team orders to come in to play if Lewis finds himself behind Valterri Bottas at any point during the race.

What of the rest? Ferrari looks to have peaked before the summer break and are now on their way down. Red Bull may well figure close to the front but I doubt they can beat the Mercedes. Back in division 2 we should see some racing between Hass, Force India and the Sauber of Le Clerc which might compensate a little for the Silver Arrows running away at the front.

It will be an early start with Qualifying at 7:00 a.m. on Saturday and the race starting at 6:10 in the morning on Sunday but at least you will have the rest of the day to something after the inevitable Mercedes 1-2.
 
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the problem is that he didn't have many other choices, he saw a gap and went for it, sadly for him it didn't work out but with hindsight it's easy.
Exactly, looking at it in full speed Vettel had much more speed and as you say the gap was there. It was a ballsy attempt and sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't. No huge error and the realistic chance of winning the championship is long gone anyway.
 
siffert_fan Skysports gave Hamilton 10 and Vettel 5 so are they a fan club as well when Vettel got a 10 at Spa when he won ?

Why Seb being rated harshly.? well he said there was no need to try " do or die " approaches but at that moment he did

Spoon curve the chances of success are very small.

Publius Cornelius Scipio Verstappen seems to be the one driver that scares Vettel that he does not have an answer for? Was Max missing him , I don't think so because that would put Max out of a podium to be playing games like that
 
Vettel certainly has got a serious bashing today in the press

The Daily Mail. Headline: 'Hamilton's in a league of his own'
"It is a measure of Lewis Hamilton's total mastery of the track that Sebastian Vettel has been reduced to the type of self-damaging, gung-ho gamble that practically gift-wrapped the world title for the Briton here on Sunday,"

"The mistake reflected precisely the predicament weighing on Vettel's slim shoulders. Simply, Vettel cannot match Hamilton."

the German was a "broken man" when speaking in the paddock afterwards. "A Four time world champion being exposed as mortal"
 
The Telegraph. Headline: 'Hamilton profits from latest Vettel error'
Press Association writer Phil Duncan continues on that theme in the Telegraph, claiming Vettel's attempted overtake "smacked of desperation".

"It was his seventh mistake of an increasingly erratic campaign which has unravelled since the summer break," he explained.
 
I almost hate to wade in.....but a few points

1. Vettel's do-or-die maneuver occurred on lap 8, not the last lap. He could have waited.
2. Vettel probably could do no better than third that day anyway, and he was in fourth (actually he was already in third as Max had a 5 second penalty).
3. He could ill afford to throw the points away....and there are still four races left (100 points). Already his only real hope was to make no mistakes and hope that two reliability or Mercedes/Hamilton mistakes put him back in the running. He was not going to win this championship through superior driving.
4. Verstappen is a very known quantity. What was he expecting?

It was an ill-conceived attempt by Vettel. He was too far back to have attempted it. He should have waited and tried it when there was a better and safer chance.
 
1. Vettel's do-or-die maneuver occurred on lap 8, not the last lap. He could have waited.
2. Vettel probably could do no better than third that day anyway, and he was in fourth (actually he was already in third as Max had a 5 second penalty).

...

It was an ill-conceived attempt by Vettel. He was too far back to have attempted it. He should have waited and tried it when there was a better and safer chance.

3rd was a pointless result for Vettel, in a sense lap 8 was already almost too late to pass Verstappen, Vettel's only chance was to keep close to the Mercs, he had to take many risks (passing Bottas wouldn't have been easy). We always complain about push to pass and the lack of on track moves and Vettel when tries to address that situation it's a mistake.

I would also like to point out that from what I saw after the race (as I said I watched until lap 15) Vettel did similar moves to other dirvers at the spoon, so the problem was not that it's a impossible place to pass or that he was too far back (he wasn't otherwise he wouldn't have got alongside Verstappen when they turned in), Vettel's problem was that in front of him he had Verstappen
 
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3rd was a pointless result for Vettel, in a sense lap 8 was already almost too late to pass Verstappen, Vettel's only chance was to keep close to the Mercs, he had to take many risks (passing Bottas wouldn't have been easy).

I wish I could give this multiple likes. I really don't understand how people can't see this. Sitting behind Verstappen whilst the Mercs cleared off was not an option. Would he have been able to keep up with them? Probably not but he had to try. Hence why he went for the do or die move.

In fact most of Vettel's 'errors' this season come from him trying something in order to help his championship. It comes from the fact he is trying to compete with a Hamilton in the form of his life in a great Merc car. He could very well have played it safe and got some better results. He might have a few more points than he does now if he did. He still wouldn't win the title though.

Better to regret something you try than you don't try.
 
... Would he have been able to keep up with them? Probably not but he had to try. Hence why he went for the do or die move.

In fact most of Vettel's 'errors' this season come from him trying something in order to help his championship. It comes from the fact he is trying to compete with a Hamilton in the form of his life in a great Merc car.

...

Better to regret something you try than you don't try.

I agree, he probably wouldn't have been able to keep p with them but you never know and something could happen so IMHO he was right it taking a risk. When I talk about "risk" I refer to the fact that he had to pass Verstappen, not to the move itself, he did it other times during the race didn't he? So it was perfectly feasable. PAssing Verstappen was another matter

I think that most of Vettel's mistakes this season come from desperation (I'd say with the exception of Hockenheim), he knows that the stewards have a special "Vettel mode" when they review his actions, he knows that most often than not his team is not really up to the Mercedes' pit wall, he knows that his car has been superior to the Mercs for a few races but for the rest of the season it has been close but not quite there, and finally he knows that it's him on his own against Hamilton + Bottas and he also knows that this is mostly his fault because it was him who wanted Kimi as his team mate
 
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Sebastian often speaks about Kimi as a friend, but is he, or was he exactly that? Kimi's wedding was on and without his (alleged) friend Seb, which struck me as rather strange (Arrivabene was there). Who know why Seb was not invited or couldn't make it. Monza clash was again sign of something - unreported - else. Hidden resentment????

Vettel is now truly on his own in a team-sport, mind you, with weak pit-wall strategy calls, technically wounded Ferrari, and an idiotic and out of bounds guy driving for a rival team. Mood in the garage and out of camera sight must be probably one of hopelessness. Add spineless FiA and one gets pretty ugly picture.

I do not wish to make empty or baseless finger-pointing, but Arrivabene I think mismanaged the team this year after passing of Sergio, as he was caught unprepared for taking over almost over night, and whole situation in mid-season got out of his hands. Kimi is leaving despite that Arrivabene wants him to stay, and then on technical side mess with "batteries-gate" created new battleground.

The man to run the team IMO should be someone like Frédéric Vasseur, as opposed to a PR or marketing specialist.
 
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It does seem like Vettel and indeed Ferrari have struggled since Sergio's demise, then again it was a huge impact on the team I guess. I'm not always sure Kimi is as much a friend to Seb as he thinks either, he's made some moves that suggest otherwise to me. Yes Seb has made some desperate moves but if he didn't try some of them he would be accused of not trying hard enough, so he really can't win can he? Hell even Hamilton has been in the press saying they shouldn't criticise Vettel so much, yet his own team haven't said a dicky bird to defend him as far as I know.

I don't know what it is about Arrivebene but I've never really liked him much, there's just something about the guy that I can't put my finger on but which makes me not trust him. I liked Stefano Domenicali but I'm not sure Ferrari would be in better shape if he was to return to the helm. Hopefully they will find a way of moving the team forward next year with someone else.
 
It does seem like Vettel and indeed Ferrari have struggled since Sergio's demise,

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I'm not always sure Kimi is as much a friend to Seb as he thinks either, he's made some moves that suggest otherwise to me.

I have seen somewhere that Ferrari is torn between 2 factions since the death of Marchionne, on the one hand Arrivabene and on the other Binotto.

Regarding Kimi I think that Kimi's only friend is Kimi himself, he doesn't really come across as a very big-hearted sort of guy, and I think that some people around him (I want to gve him the benefit of the doubt) are only interested in $$$ and push him to take some less than professional decisions, and I'm referring to the fact that despite the fact that he works for Ferrari he doesn't agree to be a team player and the fact that in order not to get into Vettel's way Ferrari had to offer him 2 years of salary to drive for Sauber, Kimi is lucky that Steve Robertson has managed to make some very good friends among the media so that no one dare say anything even slightly remotely negative about him
 
Vettel needed to pass Verstappen on track, and be close enough to Bottas to pass him during the stops, in order to attack Hamilton in the second half of the race. Each of those extremely difficult to pull off, but realistically his only chance. Waiting for Verstappen to pit would have been disastrous, but waiting at all would have been very costly.
 
But you have to balance risk, ambition & realism. Yes he felt he had to be opportunistic. But you have to be realistic the odds werent in his favour. Set him up for spoon 2 or casio triangle getting a great run out of spoon 1. His impulsive nature has cost him. Like it did in monza if he backed out there & Thought long term he wouldve won the italian gp he had quickest car & same in japan wouldve finished 2nd.

Giving a title standings of
Lewis- 324
Vettel - 287

Its like 2017. I think lewis would won in abu dhabi not mexico without that singapore crash. Who knows with a 10pt lead going into singapore instead of a 28 pt lead. Could lose been relaxed enough to put that special lap together. Couldve be max on pole that gaps even shorter maybe only 30pts not 67 going into final 4
 
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Sorry guys but the difference between 3rd and 2nd is only 3 points. This was not going make a big difference in the championship (60 points behind vice 57). Taking a high risk pass on Verstappen was only worthwhile if he had a chance to get to and pass Hamilton. I don't think he did (does anyone really want to argue that he could have?). He was already in a situation where he needed Hamilton to have problems in multiple races to close the gap. Being behind at this stage, he really needed to conserve points and wait if the racing gods were going to gift him a chance.
 
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